Disneyland Forward - Everything Disney Has Said Publicly
A few days ago Disney launched the website DisneylandForward.com with some flashy concept art and teasing that they want to get new zoning approvals for basically all of their current ground level parking lots. They included putting the Eastern Gateway parking structure back on the table, which would be needed if they develop all the existing ground level parking into attractions, retail, dining, and hotels. They also show what appears to be theme park expansion pads replacing the Pinocchio and Simba Parking Lots on the West side of the property. On top of that, they tease that they would like to do something similar to Disney Springs from Walt Disney World in the location of the current Toy Story parking lot as teased below.
Below is a site map that they are using to present to the city of Anaheim for what they are looking to do. Here is a good time to remind you that they are current;y only asking for the updated zoning. So don't be looking at the concept art for specific things they are set on doing because unless they get the zoning approved, none of this can happen. I feel it is also important to note that in their own image they specify that they want both areas to be zoned for "Theme Park, Retail, Dining, Entertainment, and Hotel" use, more on this later.
Everything hinges on the Eastern Gateway getting approval. Disney first shared this concept with the public back in 2016 with the goal being to open in 2018, in time for the big Star Wars Galaxy's Edge expansion that opened in 2019. You can see they want this back on the table now as it is the "possible new parking structure" to the East of the parks and North of the Toy Story lot. Without this getting approved, they really will be stuck for a while. The premise was that it would not just be a big parking structure, but the shuttle and ride share drop-offs would be moved to this site, and all entering the parks from the East Side would use a new pedestrian overpass to access the Esplanade. Note, this will likely also free up some land that could be swallowed up by California Adventure for an expansion to the Hollywood section of the park. And, as I was researching the property, the USCIS lease expired sometime last year, meaning that Disney has full use of that space now too, the original site plan had them building the garage on one side of it and the shuttle drop offs on the other side of it.
Why Disney NEEDS to buy GardenWalk:
GardenWalk would be a bigger competitor as soon as Disney builds up the Toy Story Lot, and is right between this site and the Eastern Gateway. GardenWalk has been struggling ever since it opened more than a decade ago, so much that it has had 3 owners in this time. After this last year, with the extremely limited capacity, and places like House of Blues having to have no live entertainment for over a year, I highly doubt that GardenWalk is doing well like the current owners would have wanted when they purchased the property a couple years ago.
From what I can tell, even if Disney were to acquire the GardenWalk property, they wouldn't be able to change what it is zoned for (retail, dining, entertainment, and hotels) for 10-20 years and that would be a good thing. Lets imagine that you are a guest who is going to the potential 3rd gate and you parked at the Eastern Gateway. Disney builds a nice pedestrian overpass to get you onto the GW property, or even does like in DownTown Disney and does significant work on Disney Way (and Katella) to have the road go down gradually and back up to meet Harbor so that the pedestrians don't have too much incline for their route. You then are right in the middle of GardenWalk as you are on your way to the park and maybe you decide to grab breakfast, or window shop. And then, on your way back to the car after the park closes, you can grab that item you saw in the morning and have been thinking about all day.
Disney wants to be able to control your experience from the moment you arrive to the moment you leave. How will they control the experience if the only way to whatever they do at the current Toy Story lot is through someone else's property? And for that matter, do you really think Disney wants their guests spending at their competitor when they are walking to/from the site? We all know the answer is no. So regardless of what Disney wants to do with the Toy Story lot, they'll need this property to connect the entire resort. The property is also already zoned as part of the "Disney Resort Area" as opposed to the "Anaheim Resort Area" for the city's master plan as seen above (source: Anaheim Master Plan)
Why a 3rd Park is Better than a Shopping District and can fit.
Let's now take a look at the Toy Story lot and why a 3rd theme park is actually the best way to go. Let's start with the myth that the property is "too small for a 3rd park". As you can see in the image above, the actual acreage of this property is approximately 74 acres. Disney will never be able to get another piece of property this large anywhere remotely close to Disneyland. Also, even when Disney purchased the property back in 1998, both they, and the city of Anaheim anticipated it becoming a 3rd park. (source: Anaheim Farm Now Disney's Land to Expand) And, this parcel of land has actually been zoned for Theme Park use ever since Disney purchased it, Disney actually had to get special zoning approval to make it the Toy Story parking lot back in 2008). Also, Disney was definitely planning for a 3rd park in the late 90s/early 2000s to the point where they actually had a special website to tease it, (much like DisneylandForward.com is teasing now). That website? thirdthemepark.com and it teased the possibilities of what they could do with a 3rd park (image source progresscityusa.com)
Why haven't they built a 3rd park yet? Well there are a lot of factors, to start with, these plans were from before the 9/11 terrorist attacks that lead to a decrease in tourism. Also, California Adventure saw very lackluster attendance (attendance is partly based on how many guests start their day at the park, not just how many were there throughout the day via park hopping). They had to slam the breaks on the growth and instead focus on DCA. A Bug's Land was build incredibly fast due to using off the shelf rides. The Tower of Terror ride was originally going to be a geyser theme and put behind Thunder Mt, but when DCA was struggling and needed a shot in the arm, they opted to do a copy of the successful ride from WDW. Also, instead of Monsters Inc getting a brand new ride, Superstar Limo was met with such an awful reaction that they had to replace it cheaply fast in time for the 50th anniversary celebration. Then shortly after that they announced the massive overhaul of DCA that added Cars Land, World of Color, Little Mermaid, and redoing the entire entrance.
Now we fast forward to a new problem. Disney has done so much growth in both Disneyland and DCA that they are fast running out of room to expand either park. The best solution? Build a 3rd park on the current Toy Story lot site. I imagine that the people living in the residential area bordering that property might be uneasy about that idea, so perhaps Disney could have more of their back stage areas and maybe a hotel along those borders to act as a sound barrier. The Hotels on the other side of the property would probably welcome a park because then they can charge more for rooms with a view of the park. Also, this would alleviate some of the pressure from the existing parks and make projects like a New Tomorrowland, or massively updated Hollywood much easier as they won't be as disruptive in the grand scheme of things. Also, this would allow Disney to alternate between the 3 parks for new offerings instead of just between 2 parks which is what they do now.
I would still ask the city for the zoning they want on the West side of the parks now to have available for a later date because at some point they will need it. They can build the 3rd park smaller like they did with DCA originally (it was only 55 acres in 2008) so build it at 50-55 acres now, then leave room for later expansions as needed. I would then try to acquire GardenWalk because that property sold for less than they spend to make 1 Marvel or Star Wars movie in 2018-19 so it really wouldn't be that expensive in the grand scheme of things. They'd have to honor existing leases, but they could start figuring out their long term plans for the area to have a "DownTown Disney East" where I think they need to have another hotel (or 2).
Lastly, we should discuss some sort of transportation system to get you around the resort. Being the progressive that I am, I believe that any option they choose should be good for the environment so buses are my least favorite option. I would lean towards a PeopleMover system, or a Skyliner (although I can see a potential problem of if it breaks down, you then might have gondolas dangling above moving traffic on Harbor, Disney Way, and Katella). My preference would be a new Monorail line that would start from the existing Downtown Disney station, then hug DCA's Western border and have a stop at the Anaheim Convention Center, then head to the outside of the new park (maybe stop at GardenWalk), continue East on Katella and stop at ARTIC (like was originally planned when that site was in development), then double back, stopping again at GardenWalk, then turning North to stop at Eastern Gateway, then travel all the way around the back side of Disneyland to end up back at the current DownTown Disney station) but, that is probably the most expensive option. So I think the most economic option would be either a Skyliner or People Mover, and that Peopl Mover might just be easier to get the approval for from the city.
Can you imagine getting a 3rd park in time for Disneyland's 75th Anniversary in 2030? If they get the ball rolling now, it might actually be doable!